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人民币贬值会不会影响全球经济

来源:未知 作者:野蛮人 时间:2017-03-03 阅读:

人民币

  For many months, as dark clouds have gatheredover the Chinese economy, it has seemed obviousthat the authorities might be tempted to press anescape button that has been used by all the othermajor economies since 2008. That button is labelled“devaluation”. Yet, until Tuesday, this temptationwas stoutly resisted. Premier Li Keqiang has neverseemed particularly attracted to a traditional Asiandevaluation strategy. Indeed, export-led growth isthe reverse of the economic rebalancing that he hasalways championed.

  一段时期以来,随着中国经济上空的乌云不断积聚,有一点看起来已经很明显,那就是中国当局可能会禁不住诱惑、按下那个自2008年以来所有其他主要经济体都使用过的逃跑按钮。这个按钮叫做“货币贬值”。然而,直至本周二之前,这种诱惑一直被坚决抵制。中国总理李克强对亚洲传统的货币贬值策略似乎从来都不是特别感冒。事实上,出口拉动型增长与他一直倡导的经济再平衡目标背道而驰。

  China has now clearly blinked, and the renminbi has fallen by 4 per cent in two days. However,as so often in China, it is impossible to tell from official statements whether a major regimeshift has actually taken place.

  而今,中国显然犹豫了,人民币也在周二和周三两天内下跌3.5%(注:本周四人民币汇率中间价再跌1.1%)。然而,跟中国通常的情况一样,我们不可能从官方陈述中看出,一个重大制度性转变是否已事实上发生。

  The PBOC is trying to describe the devaluation as nothing more than a tactical shift to allowmarket forces to work more actively, thus allowing the currency to enter the SDR fairly soon.But the PBOC has also warned that the short term market moves might be quite large. Theymay be seeking to dress up a deliberate devaluation in the clothes of a “market friendly”reform.

  中国央行正试图将此轮贬值描述为不过是一种战术转变,其目的是让市场发挥更积极的作用,从而使人民币能够在较短时间内被纳入特别提款权(SDR)货币篮子。但中国央行也警告称,短期的市场波动可能会非常大。他们或许在谋求为一场蓄意的贬值披上“有利于市场”的改革的外衣。

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